Saturday, June 13, 2009

Yesterday I received an email from a very reputable real estate broker telling me of the availability of mortgage products that would not only consider the $8,000 tax credit as part of the down payment, but would, if you chose, finance the $8,000 credit over 29 years, allowing you to effectively “keep the cash”.

So I am immediately wondering just how bad is it in debt finance land.

We are starting to see housing prices firm and we are continuing to see inventory levels decline. Home Depot announced a decent quarter and lifted guidance. Confirmation of indications that housing is not getting worse.

Unemployment is nasty, though it is a trailing indicator. It is likely to get worse before it starts to get better.

Say it out loud- GM an Chrysler are simply jobs retention programs! The stock market no longer cares about either as the potential disruption caused by large job losses has been averted. In my view, neither will succeed in the long run, nor is it reasonable to expect that the Gov’t will get a reasonable return on it’s investment. But jobs will, to an extent, be preserved and the pension plans will survive for another period of time.

This morning, ten major banks gained approval to repay the TARP monies they borrowed. Interesting how compensation restrictions can cause company’s to get religion. Again, I am thinking, just how bad can it be?

Finally, Texas Instruments announced earnings last night. They had a very strong report. But more importantly, they gave guidance and lifted it significantly over the general expectations. Until recently, nobody was offering guidance of any sort. So this is suggestive that the ground may be moving.

Yes interest rates are moving up, newspaper and magazines remain in deep trouble, the healthcare debate is heating up.

But the underlying environment continues to improve. And, of all the major world markets, the United States has recovered the least, so far, this year. Keep your heads up!

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